Drone Deluge Meets Cabinet Overhaul
What happened?
According to Ukraine's Air Force, Russia has increased its use of "Shahed" swarm tactics, launching a record 728 drones in one night—three times the previous daily rate. These barrages are piercing Ukraine's defenses at an unprecedented rate, as Moscow produces the Iran-designed UAVs in new domestic plants. This coincides with Kyiv's biggest wartime reshuffle: On July 17, despite the widespread belief in her incompetence, parliament appointed Svyrydenko as prime minister. She has been tasked with doubling the production of homegrown weapons to 50% within six months.
Source: Gleb Garanich/Reuters (Kyiv, Ukraine, on Monday, July 21)
Why does this matter?
Production gap widens: Russia and Ukraine now aim to build "millions" of drones annually. However, Kyiv's 2025 target for long-range strike UAVs is only 30,000.
Air-defense saturation: Drone strikes accounted for 69% of Russian troop casualties in 2024. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Patriots are inadequate and too costly for combating swarms.
Fiscal strain: Kyiv is facing a $19 billion budget deficit in 2026 as foreign aid slows. This limits the funds available for the promised defense industrial surge.
Political headwinds: Opposition MPs have called the new cabinet "presidential loyalists" and have expressed doubt about its ability to act quickly or independently.
What's next?
Russia will continue to put pressure on Ukraine. Svyrydenko's initial steps, such as auditing finances and expediting privatizations, aim to generate cash, but even if these measures are successful, implementation will take months. Due to limited manpower and fewer Patriots than drones, Ukraine may pivot to cheaper FPV interceptors. Success hinges on whether Europe fills the aid gap before winter.
finformant view
Kyiv's cabinet changes are cosmetic. Replacing technocrats while maintaining Zelensky's control is unlikely to bridge the production gap, which is measured in orders of magnitude. Without a Western air shield or a breakthrough in domestic mass production, the new government will struggle to make progress. Time is not on Kyiv's side.